Super Lig (Turkey) · Sat, Sep 19 · 14:00 · Çorum FK vs Alanyaspor
Likeliest: Çorum FK win · 44%
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Çorum FK44%45%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+1
OursMarket
Alanyaspor27%27%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 47% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 51% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Çorum FK
DrawLossLossWinWin
- Sep 12 · at Samsunspor (A)5-1
- Sep 6 · v Eyüpspor (H)3-0
- Aug 31 · at Beşiktaş (A)2-6
- Aug 22 · v Kasımpaşa (H)0-1
- Aug 14 · at Galatasaray (A)2-2
Alanyaspor
DrawWinLossWinDraw
- Sep 12 · v Göztepe (H)2-2
- Sep 7 · at Çaykur Rizespor (A)1-0
- Aug 30 · at Eyüpspor (A)1-2
- Aug 23 · v Beşiktaş (H)1-0
- Aug 15 · at Gaziantep FK (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Çorum FK | Alanyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 1-5-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.