Super Lig (Turkey) · Fri, Oct 16 · 17:00 · Çorum FK vs Çaykur Rizespor
Likeliest: Çorum FK win · 45%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 45% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Çorum FK45%45%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Çaykur Rizespor29%29%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 71% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Çorum FK
LossWinWinLossWin
- Oct 11 · at Gaziantep FK (A)3-0
- Sep 19 · v Alanyaspor (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Samsunspor (A)5-1
- Sep 6 · v Eyüpspor (H)3-0
- Aug 31 · at Beşiktaş (A)2-6
Çaykur Rizespor
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · v Fenerbahçe (H)0-3
- Sep 20 · at Göztepe (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Eyüpspor (A)2-0
- Sep 7 · v Alanyaspor (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at Gaziantep FK (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Çorum FK | Çaykur Rizespor |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.