CONCACAF Nations League · Mon, Oct 5 · 00:00 · Costa Rica vs Haiti
Likeliest: Costa Rica win · 44%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Costa Rica44%46%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+2
OursMarket
Haiti27%27%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 49% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 2.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Costa Rica
LossLossLossLossWin
- Oct 2 · at Nicaragua (A)3-0
- Sep 27 · at Haiti (A)0-2
- Sep 25 · v Curaçao (H)3-4
- Jun 10 · at England (A)0-3
- Jun 1 · at Colombia (A)1-3
Haiti
LossLossWinWinWin
- Oct 2 · at Dominican Republic (A)4-1
- Sep 27 · v Costa Rica (H)2-0
- Sep 25 · v Trinidad and Tobago (H)3-2
- Jun 24 · at Morocco (A)2-4
- Jun 20 · at Brazil (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Costa Rica | Haiti |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.