Africa Cup of Nations Qualifiers · Thu, Sep 24 · 19:00 · Côte d'Ivoire vs Ghana
Likeliest: Côte d'Ivoire win · 64%
A tight one: we make it 64% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Côte d'Ivoire64%——
OursMarket
Draw23%——
OursMarket
Ghana13%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 83% | — | — |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Côte d'Ivoire
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Jun 30 · v Norway (H)1-2
- Jun 25 · at Curaçao (A)2-0
- Jun 20 · at Germany (A)1-2
- Jun 14 · v Ecuador (H)1-0
- Jun 4 · at France (A)2-1
Ghana
DrawWinDrawLossLoss
- Jul 4 · at Colombia (A)0-1
- Jun 27 · at Croatia (A)1-2
- Jun 23 · at England (A)0-0
- Jun 17 · v Panama (H)1-0
- Jun 2 · at Wales (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Côte d'Ivoire | Ghana |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.