EFL Cup (England) · Wed, Sep 16 · 19:00 · Coventry City vs Aston Villa
Likeliest: Aston Villa win · 42%
A tight one: we make it 42% for the away win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Coventry City30%32%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Aston Villa42%42%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 60% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 68% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 43% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Coventry City
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Sep 13 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)0-5
- Sep 5 · at Manchester City (A)0-1
- Aug 29 · v Hull City (H)0-1
- Aug 25 · at Plymouth Argyle (A)4-2
- Aug 21 · at Arsenal (A)0-3
Aston Villa
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- Sep 12 · v Nottingham Forest (H)1-2
- Sep 8 · at Club Brugge KV (A)3-2
- Sep 5 · at Hull City (A)0-0
- Aug 31 · v Arsenal (H)0-1
- Aug 23 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | Coventry City | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.