Premier League (England) · Sun, Sep 13 · 13:00 · Coventry City vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Likeliest: Brighton & Hove Albion win · 53%
A tight one: we make it 53% for the away win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Coventry City22%24%−3
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Brighton & Hove Albion53%51%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 54% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 47% | 49% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 79% | 76% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 29% | 32% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Coventry City
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Sep 5 · at Manchester City (A)0-1
- Aug 29 · v Hull City (H)0-1
- Aug 25 · at Plymouth Argyle (A)4-2
- Aug 21 · at Arsenal (A)0-3
- May 2 · at Watford (A)4-0
Brighton & Hove Albion
DrawWinWinLossDraw
- Sep 5 · v Leeds United (H)1-1
- Aug 30 · at Chelsea (A)3-4
- Aug 27 · v Tromsø IL (H)4-0
- Aug 23 · v Aston Villa (H)4-0
- Aug 20 · at Tromsø IL (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Coventry City | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.