Championship (England) · Sat, Dec 13 · 15:00 · Coventry City vs Bristol City
Likeliest: Coventry City win · 66%
A 66% home win. The market says 58%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Coventry City66%58%+8
OursMarket
Draw20%23%−3
OursMarket
Bristol City13%19%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 81% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 42% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 77% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 83% | 75% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Coventry City
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Dec 9 · at Preston North End (A)1-1
- Dec 6 · at Ipswich Town (A)0-3
- Nov 29 · v Charlton Athletic (H)3-1
- Nov 25 · at Middlesbrough (A)4-2
- Nov 22 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)3-2
Bristol City
WinLossWinLossDraw
- Dec 10 · v Leicester City (H)2-2
- Dec 6 · v Millwall (H)0-1
- Nov 29 · at Portsmouth (A)1-0
- Nov 26 · at Wrexham (A)0-2
- Nov 22 · v Swansea City (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Coventry City | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.