Championship (England) · Fri, Apr 3 · 19:00 · Coventry City vs Derby County
Likeliest: Coventry City win · 57%
We make it 61% for both teams to score. The market says 54%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Coventry City57%57%0
OursMarket
Draw23%24%−1
OursMarket
Derby County21%19%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 55% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 54% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 81% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 43% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 75% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Coventry City
WinWinWinLossWin
- Mar 21 · at Swansea City (A)3-0
- Mar 14 · v Southampton (H)1-2
- Mar 11 · v Preston North End (H)3-0
- Mar 7 · at Bristol City (A)2-0
- Feb 28 · v Stoke City (H)2-1
Derby County
WinWinLossWinWin
- Mar 21 · v Birmingham City (H)1-0
- Mar 16 · at Portsmouth (A)1-0
- Mar 10 · at Millwall (A)0-1
- Mar 7 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)2-1
- Feb 28 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Coventry City | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 6-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.