Premier League (England) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · Coventry City vs Fulham
Likeliest: Fulham win · 42%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 42% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Coventry City30%32%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Fulham42%41%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 59% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 44% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Coventry City
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Oct 19 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)1-3
- Oct 12 · v Newcastle United (H)4-1
- Sep 19 · at Nottingham Forest (A)1-0
- Sep 16 · v Aston Villa (H)1-3
- Sep 13 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)0-5
Fulham
DrawWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 17 · v Hull City (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · at Ipswich Town (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · v Manchester United (H)1-1
- Sep 15 · at West Ham United (A)3-2
- Sep 12 · at Liverpool (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Coventry City | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.