Premier League (England) · Sat, Aug 29 · 14:00 · Coventry City vs Hull City
Likeliest: Coventry City win · 52%
We make it 69% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 52%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Coventry City52%51%+1
OursMarket
Draw26%27%−1
OursMarket
Hull City22%22%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 52% | +17 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 56% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 70% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Coventry City
WinWinWinLossWin
- Aug 25 · at Plymouth Argyle (A)4-2
- Aug 21 · at Arsenal (A)0-3
- May 2 · at Watford (A)4-0
- Apr 26 · v Wrexham (H)3-1
- Apr 21 · v Portsmouth (H)5-1
Hull City
DrawWinWinWinDraw
- Aug 25 · at Stoke City (A)1-1
- Aug 22 · v Manchester United (H)2-0
- May 23 · v Middlesbrough (H)1-0
- May 11 · at Millwall (A)2-0
- May 8 · v Millwall (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Coventry City | Hull City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.