Championship (England) · Mon, Feb 16 · 20:00 · Coventry City vs Middlesbrough
Likeliest: Coventry City win · 49%
A 49% home win. The market says 41%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Coventry City49%41%+7
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−4
OursMarket
Middlesbrough28%32%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 55% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 68% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 59% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 57% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Coventry City
WinWinLossLossDraw
- Feb 7 · v Oxford United (H)0-0
- Jan 31 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)1-2
- Jan 26 · at Norwich City (A)1-2
- Jan 20 · v Millwall (H)2-1
- Jan 17 · v Leicester City (H)2-1
Middlesbrough
WinWinWinWinWin
- Feb 9 · at Sheffield United (A)2-1
- Jan 31 · v Norwich City (H)1-0
- Jan 24 · v Preston North End (H)4-0
- Jan 21 · at Stoke City (A)2-1
- Jan 16 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Coventry City | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.