Premier League (England) · Mon, Oct 12 · 19:00 · Coventry City vs Newcastle United
Likeliest: Newcastle United win · 48%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 48% for the away win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Coventry City25%28%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
Newcastle United48%46%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 57% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 60% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 53% | 54% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 34% | 38% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Coventry City
LossLossLossLossWin
- Sep 19 · at Nottingham Forest (A)1-0
- Sep 16 · v Aston Villa (H)1-3
- Sep 13 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)0-5
- Sep 5 · at Manchester City (A)0-1
- Aug 29 · v Hull City (H)0-1
Newcastle United
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Sep 19 · v Hull City (H)2-1
- Sep 14 · at Leeds United (A)1-4
- Sep 8 · at Millwall (A)1-0
- Sep 5 · v Bournemouth (H)2-2
- Aug 29 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Coventry City | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-0-5 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.