Championship (England) · Sat, Feb 7 · 15:01 · Coventry City vs Oxford United
Likeliest: Coventry City win · 60%
A 19% away win. The market says 14%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Coventry City60%66%−6
OursMarket
Draw22%20%+2
OursMarket
Oxford United19%14%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 58% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 52% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 86% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 34% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 80% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 83% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Coventry City
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Jan 31 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)1-2
- Jan 26 · at Norwich City (A)1-2
- Jan 20 · v Millwall (H)2-1
- Jan 17 · v Leicester City (H)2-1
- Jan 10 · at Stoke City (A)0-1
Oxford United
DrawDrawWinLossLoss
- Feb 3 · at Sheffield United (A)1-3
- Jan 31 · v Birmingham City (H)0-2
- Jan 24 · at Leicester City (A)2-1
- Jan 20 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)0-0
- Jan 17 · v Bristol City (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Coventry City | Oxford United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.