Championship (England) · Tue, Apr 21 · 18:45 · Coventry City vs Portsmouth
Likeliest: Coventry City win · 62%
We make it 55% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 47%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Coventry City62%57%+5
OursMarket
Draw22%24%−2
OursMarket
Portsmouth16%19%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 53% | −8 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 53% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 81% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 43% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 75% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Coventry City
WinWinDrawDrawDraw
- Apr 17 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)1-1
- Apr 11 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)0-0
- Apr 6 · at Hull City (A)0-0
- Apr 3 · v Derby County (H)3-2
- Mar 21 · at Swansea City (A)3-0
Portsmouth
DrawDrawWinWinWin
- Apr 18 · v Leicester City (H)1-0
- Apr 14 · v Ipswich Town (H)2-0
- Apr 11 · at Middlesbrough (A)1-0
- Apr 6 · v Oxford United (H)2-2
- Apr 3 · at Norwich City (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Coventry City | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.