Championship (England) · Sat, Feb 28 · 15:00 · Coventry City vs Stoke City
Likeliest: Coventry City win · 58%
We make it 61% for both teams to score. The market says 53%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Coventry City58%61%−4
OursMarket
Draw23%22%+1
OursMarket
Stoke City20%16%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 53% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 84% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 39% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 78% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 79% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Coventry City
LossDrawWinWinWin
- Feb 25 · at Sheffield United (A)2-1
- Feb 21 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)2-0
- Feb 16 · v Middlesbrough (H)3-1
- Feb 7 · v Oxford United (H)0-0
- Jan 31 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)1-2
Stoke City
DrawLossLossDrawWin
- Feb 25 · v Oxford United (H)2-1
- Feb 21 · v Leicester City (H)2-2
- Feb 15 · v Fulham (H)1-2
- Feb 11 · at Charlton Athletic (A)0-1
- Feb 7 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Coventry City | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.