Championship (England) · Fri, Dec 26 · 15:00 · Coventry City vs Swansea City
Likeliest: Coventry City win · 59%
We make it 49% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Coventry City59%59%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Swansea City16%18%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 56% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 55% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 41% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 76% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Coventry City
WinLossDrawWinDraw
- Dec 20 · at Southampton (A)1-1
- Dec 13 · v Bristol City (H)1-0
- Dec 9 · at Preston North End (A)1-1
- Dec 6 · at Ipswich Town (A)0-3
- Nov 29 · v Charlton Athletic (H)3-1
Swansea City
LossWinWinLossWin
- Dec 19 · v Wrexham (H)2-1
- Dec 13 · at Stoke City (A)1-2
- Dec 9 · v Portsmouth (H)1-0
- Dec 6 · v Oxford United (H)2-0
- Nov 29 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Coventry City | Swansea City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-1-0 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.