Championship (England) · Sun, Apr 26 · 11:00 · Coventry City vs Wrexham
Likeliest: Coventry City win · 53%
A 53% home win. The market says 43%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Coventry City53%43%+10
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
Wrexham23%31%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 55% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 58% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 69% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 57% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 59% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Coventry City
WinDrawDrawDrawWin
- Apr 21 · v Portsmouth (H)5-1
- Apr 17 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)1-1
- Apr 11 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)0-0
- Apr 6 · at Hull City (A)0-0
- Apr 3 · v Derby County (H)3-2
Wrexham
DrawLossLossWinWin
- Apr 21 · at Oxford United (A)1-0
- Apr 18 · v Stoke City (H)2-0
- Apr 12 · at Birmingham City (A)0-2
- Apr 7 · v Southampton (H)1-5
- Apr 3 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Coventry City | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.