Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Sat, Oct 17 · 18:15 · Cracovia vs Legia Warszawa
Likeliest: Legia Warszawa win · 40%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 40% for the away win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cracovia32%35%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Legia Warszawa40%39%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 65% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 47% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cracovia
LossLossLossLossWin
- Oct 10 · v Zagłębie Lubin (H)3-1
- Sep 19 · at GKS Katowice (A)2-3
- Sep 13 · at Wisła Płock (A)1-3
- Sep 6 · v Górnik Zabrze (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at Radomiak Radom (A)1-2
Legia Warszawa
DrawWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 11 · v Wisła Kraków (H)2-0
- Sep 20 · at Jagiellonia Białystok (A)3-1
- Sep 13 · v Widzew Łódź (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at Motor Lublin (A)3-2
- Aug 28 · v Śląsk Wrocław (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Cracovia | Legia Warszawa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 6-4-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.