Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Sat, Oct 10 · 12:45 · Cracovia vs Zagłębie Lubin
Likeliest: Cracovia win · 49%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cracovia49%50%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Zagłębie Lubin22%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 50% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 52% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cracovia
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 19 · at GKS Katowice (A)2-3
- Sep 13 · at Wisła Płock (A)1-3
- Sep 6 · v Górnik Zabrze (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at Radomiak Radom (A)1-2
- Aug 21 · v Wieczysta Kraków (H)3-2
Zagłębie Lubin
DrawDrawWinWinLoss
- Sep 20 · v Wisła Płock (H)0-2
- Sep 15 · at Raków Częstochowa (A)3-2
- Sep 12 · v GKS Katowice (H)2-1
- Sep 7 · at Wieczysta Kraków (A)1-1
- Aug 29 · v Pogoń Szczecin (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Cracovia | Zagłębie Lubin |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.