Football League Trophy (England) · Tue, Oct 6 · 18:45 · Crawley Town vs Bromley
Likeliest: Bromley win · 46%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 73% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 63%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Crawley Town29%32%−3
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Bromley46%44%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 63% | +10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 53% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 61% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 56% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 42% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 2.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Crawley Town
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 22 · at Milton Keynes Dons (A)1-4
- Sep 19 · at Grimsby Town (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · v Cheltenham Town (H)1-3
- Sep 5 · at Accrington Stanley (A)2-3
- Sep 1 · at Northampton Town (A)1-1
Bromley
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- Sep 22 · v Brentford U21 (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Huddersfield Town (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Blackpool (A)2-2
- Sep 7 · v AFC Wimbledon (H)0-2
- Sep 1 · v Leyton Orient (H)0-5
| Last 10 games | Crawley Town | Bromley |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-5-4 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.