League Two (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Crawley Town vs Chesterfield
Likeliest: Chesterfield win · 59%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 59% for the away win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Crawley Town17%20%−4
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Chesterfield59%56%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 41% | 44% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 83% | 80% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 22% | 27% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Crawley Town
LossLossLossLossWin
- Oct 6 · v Bromley (H)4-0
- Sep 22 · at Milton Keynes Dons (A)1-4
- Sep 19 · at Grimsby Town (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · v Cheltenham Town (H)1-3
- Sep 5 · at Accrington Stanley (A)2-3
Chesterfield
WinWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 3 · v Tranmere Rovers (H)4-2
- Sep 26 · at Cheltenham Town (A)1-2
- Sep 22 · v Port Vale (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · v York City (H)2-0
- Sep 15 · v Manchester City U21 (H)5-3
| Last 10 games | Crawley Town | Chesterfield |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.