League Two (England) · Tue, Oct 20 · 18:45 · Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury Town
Likeliest: Shrewsbury Town win · 37%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 37% for the away win. The market says 36%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Crawley Town33%36%−3
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Shrewsbury Town37%36%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 57% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 64% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 50% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Crawley Town
LossLossWinDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · at Salford City (A)1-2
- Oct 10 · v Chesterfield (H)2-2
- Oct 6 · v Bromley (H)4-0
- Sep 22 · at Milton Keynes Dons (A)1-4
- Sep 19 · at Grimsby Town (A)0-2
Shrewsbury Town
DrawWinLossLossWin
- Oct 17 · v Bristol Rovers (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · v Exeter City (H)0-1
- Oct 6 · v Stockport County (H)0-2
- Oct 3 · at Grimsby Town (A)2-1
- Sep 26 · v Colchester United (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Crawley Town | Shrewsbury Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.