Serie A (Italy) · Sun, May 24 · 18:45 · Cremonese vs Como
Likeliest: Como win · 51%
We make it 56% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cremonese20%18%+3
OursMarket
Draw28%23%+6
OursMarket
Como51%60%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% | −12 |
| Both teams score | 41% | 54% | −13 |
| Double chance 1X | 49% | 40% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 80% | 82% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 77% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 28% | 23% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cremonese
DrawLossLossWinWin
- May 17 · at Udinese (A)1-0
- May 10 · v Pisa (H)3-0
- May 4 · v Lazio (H)1-2
- Apr 24 · at Napoli (A)0-4
- Apr 19 · v Torino (H)0-0
Como
LossWinDrawWinWin
- May 17 · v Parma (H)1-0
- May 10 · at Hellas Verona (A)1-0
- May 2 · v Napoli (H)0-0
- Apr 26 · at Genoa (A)2-0
- Apr 21 · at Inter (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Cremonese | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-5 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.