Serie B (Italy) · Sat, Oct 24 · 13:00 · Cremonese vs Juve Stabia
Likeliest: Cremonese win · 55%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cremonese55%54%+1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Juve Stabia18%20%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 47% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 80% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cremonese
WinDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · at Pisa (A)1-3
- Oct 10 · at Arezzo (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Virtus Entella (H)0-0
- Sep 12 · at Cesena (A)2-2
- Sep 6 · v Padova (H)3-1
Juve Stabia
LossDrawDrawDrawWin
- Oct 18 · v Südtirol (H)3-0
- Oct 10 · at Virtus Entella (A)1-1
- Sep 18 · v Cesena (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at L.R. Vicenza (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Pisa (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Cremonese | Juve Stabia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.