Serie A (Italy) · Mon, May 4 · 16:30 · Cremonese vs Lazio
Likeliest: Lazio win · 52%
A 52% away win. The market says 38%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cremonese23%32%−9
OursMarket
Draw25%30%−5
OursMarket
Lazio52%38%+15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 44% | −9 |
| Both teams score | 40% | 51% | −11 |
| Double chance 1X | 48% | 62% | −15 |
| Double chance X2 | 78% | 68% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 70% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 30% | 46% | −16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cremonese
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Apr 24 · at Napoli (A)0-4
- Apr 19 · v Torino (H)0-0
- Apr 11 · at Cagliari (A)0-1
- Apr 5 · v Bologna (H)1-2
- Mar 21 · at Parma (A)2-0
Lazio
DrawLossWinDrawDraw
- Apr 27 · v Udinese (H)3-3
- Apr 22 · at Atalanta (A)1-1
- Apr 18 · at Napoli (A)2-0
- Apr 13 · at Fiorentina (A)0-1
- Apr 4 · v Parma (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Cremonese | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-5 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.