Serie B (Italy) · Fri, Aug 28 · 18:30 · Cremonese vs Modena
Likeliest: Cremonese win · 39%
A 32% away win. The market says 20%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cremonese39%52%−13
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+1
OursMarket
Modena32%20%+12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% | 40% | −9 |
| Both teams score | 39% | 42% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 80% | −12 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 48% | +13 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 72% | −17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cremonese
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Aug 22 · at Empoli (A)0-1
- Aug 17 · v Sampdoria (H)2-0
- May 24 · v Como (H)1-4
- May 17 · at Udinese (A)1-0
- May 10 · v Pisa (H)3-0
Modena
WinLossLossLossWin
- Aug 22 · at Benevento (A)2-1
- Aug 15 · at Venezia (A)2-3
- May 12 · v Juve Stabia (H)0-1
- May 8 · at Avellino (A)0-1
- May 1 · v Reggiana (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Cremonese | Modena |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.