Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Dec 28 · 14:00 · Cremonese vs Napoli
Likeliest: Cremonese win · 38%
We make it 52% for both teams to score. The market says 45%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cremonese38%15%+23
OursMarket
Draw28%25%+3
OursMarket
Napoli35%60%−26
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 46% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 45% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 40% | +26 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 85% | −23 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 20% | +32 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cremonese
LossWinWinLossDraw
- Dec 20 · at Lazio (A)0-0
- Dec 13 · at Torino (A)0-1
- Dec 7 · v Lecce (H)2-0
- Dec 1 · at Bologna (A)3-1
- Nov 23 · v Roma (H)1-3
Napoli
WinDrawWinLossLoss
- Dec 14 · at Udinese (A)0-1
- Dec 10 · at Benfica (A)0-2
- Dec 7 · v Juventus (H)2-1
- Dec 3 · v Cagliari (H)1-1
- Nov 30 · at Roma (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Cremonese | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 3-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.