Serie B (Italy) · Sun, Sep 6 · 17:30 · Cremonese vs Padova
Likeliest: Cremonese win · 41%
A 33% away win. The market says 22%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cremonese41%51%−10
OursMarket
Draw27%28%−1
OursMarket
Padova33%22%+11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 47% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 78% | −11 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 49% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 70% | −15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cremonese
LossWinLossLossWin
- Sep 1 · at Parma (A)2-0
- Aug 28 · v Modena (H)0-3
- Aug 22 · at Empoli (A)0-1
- Aug 17 · v Sampdoria (H)2-0
- May 24 · v Como (H)1-4
Padova
LossWinDraw
- Aug 29 · v Hellas Verona (H)1-1
- Aug 23 · at Pisa (A)1-0
- Aug 15 · at Udinese (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Cremonese | Padova |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | — |
| Both teams scored | 20% | — |
| Clean sheets | 50% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.