Serie A (Italy) · Sun, May 10 · 13:00 · Cremonese vs Pisa
Likeliest: Cremonese win · 50%
We make it 63% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 56%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cremonese50%53%−4
OursMarket
Draw26%27%0
OursMarket
Pisa24%20%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 44% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 47% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 80% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 47% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 73% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cremonese
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- May 4 · v Lazio (H)1-2
- Apr 24 · at Napoli (A)0-4
- Apr 19 · v Torino (H)0-0
- Apr 11 · at Cagliari (A)0-1
- Apr 5 · v Bologna (H)1-2
Pisa
LossLossLossLossLoss
- May 1 · v Lecce (H)1-2
- Apr 25 · at Parma (A)0-1
- Apr 19 · v Genoa (H)1-2
- Apr 10 · at Roma (A)0-3
- Apr 5 · v Torino (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Cremonese | Pisa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-8 | 1-0-9 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-4-6 | 0-4-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.