Coppa Italia (Italy) · Mon, Aug 17 · 18:45 · Cremonese vs Sampdoria
Likeliest: Cremonese win · 43%
A 32% away win. The market says 23%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cremonese43%50%−7
OursMarket
Draw26%28%−2
OursMarket
Sampdoria32%23%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 43% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 77% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 50% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 69% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cremonese
LossLossWinWinLoss
- May 24 · v Como (H)1-4
- May 17 · at Udinese (A)1-0
- May 10 · v Pisa (H)3-0
- May 4 · v Lazio (H)1-2
- Apr 24 · at Napoli (A)0-4
Sampdoria
WinLossDrawWinLoss
- May 8 · at Reggiana (A)0-1
- May 1 · v Südtirol (H)1-0
- Apr 25 · at Cesena (A)0-0
- Apr 17 · v Monza (H)0-3
- Apr 11 · at Pescara (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Cremonese | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-6 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.