Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Apr 19 · 10:30 · Cremonese vs Torino
Likeliest: Torino win · 42%
A 42% away win. The market says 35%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cremonese30%34%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%31%−3
OursMarket
Torino42%35%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 42% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 51% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 65% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 69% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 49% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cremonese
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Apr 11 · at Cagliari (A)0-1
- Apr 5 · v Bologna (H)1-2
- Mar 21 · at Parma (A)2-0
- Mar 16 · v Fiorentina (H)1-4
- Mar 8 · at Lecce (A)1-2
Torino
LossWinLossWinWin
- Apr 11 · v Hellas Verona (H)2-1
- Apr 5 · at Pisa (A)1-0
- Mar 21 · at AC Milan (A)2-3
- Mar 13 · v Parma (H)4-1
- Mar 6 · at Napoli (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Cremonese | Torino |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-8 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-6 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.