Serie B (Italy) · Sat, Sep 19 · 13:00 · Cremonese vs Virtus Entella
Likeliest: Cremonese win · 54%
A tight one: we make it 54% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cremonese54%54%0
OursMarket
Draw27%27%0
OursMarket
Virtus Entella19%20%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 47% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 49% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 80% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 46% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cremonese
LossLossWinWinDraw
- Sep 12 · at Cesena (A)2-2
- Sep 6 · v Padova (H)3-1
- Sep 1 · at Parma (A)2-0
- Aug 28 · v Modena (H)0-3
- Aug 22 · at Empoli (A)0-1
Virtus Entella
DrawLossLossDrawWin
- Sep 11 · at Pisa (A)4-1
- Sep 6 · v L.R. Vicenza (H)2-2
- Aug 29 · v Cesena (H)1-2
- Aug 22 · at Südtirol (A)0-1
- Aug 16 · at Hellas Verona (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Cremonese | Virtus Entella |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.