League Two (England) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Crewe Alexandra vs Rochdale
Likeliest: Crewe Alexandra win · 52%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Crewe Alexandra52%52%0
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Rochdale22%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 69% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Crewe Alexandra
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Oct 10 · at Swindon Town (A)1-0
- Oct 6 · at Blackpool (A)2-2
- Oct 3 · v Bristol Rovers (H)3-1
- Sep 26 · at Rotherham United (A)1-1
- Sep 22 · v Aston Villa U21 (H)4-1
Rochdale
DrawWinWinLossDraw
- Oct 10 · at Tranmere Rovers (A)1-1
- Oct 6 · at Huddersfield Town (A)0-5
- Oct 3 · v Swindon Town (H)1-0
- Sep 26 · at Fleetwood Town (A)2-1
- Sep 22 · v Liverpool U21 (H)3-3
| Last 10 games | Crewe Alexandra | Rochdale |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-7-0 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.