UEFA Nations League · Sat, Oct 3 · 16:00 · Croatia vs England
Likeliest: England win · 53%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 53% for the away win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Croatia20%24%−4
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+2
OursMarket
England53%51%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 54% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 57% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 47% | 49% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 80% | 76% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 27% | 32% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Croatia
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Sep 29 · at Spain (A)1-4
- Sep 26 · at Czechia (A)2-1
- Jul 2 · at Portugal (A)1-2
- Jun 27 · v Ghana (H)2-1
- Jun 23 · at Panama (A)1-0
England
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Sep 29 · at Czechia (A)2-0
- Sep 26 · v Spain (H)2-3
- Jul 18 · at France (A)6-4
- Jul 15 · v Argentina (H)1-2
- Jul 11 · at Norway (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Croatia | England |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-0-5 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-1-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.