UEFA Nations League · Tue, Oct 6 · 18:45 · Croatia vs Spain
Likeliest: Spain win · 73%
Likely score: 0–2
A 73% away win. The market says 68%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Croatia9%13%−4
OursMarket
Draw18%19%0
OursMarket
Spain73%68%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 62% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 58% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 27% | 32% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 91% | 87% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 11% | 16% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 0.6 | 2.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Croatia
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 3 · v England (H)0-7
- Sep 29 · at Spain (A)1-4
- Sep 26 · at Czechia (A)2-1
- Jul 2 · at Portugal (A)1-2
- Jun 27 · v Ghana (H)2-1
Spain
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 3 · v Czechia (H)3-1
- Sep 29 · v Croatia (H)4-1
- Sep 26 · at England (A)3-2
- Jul 19 · v Argentina (H)0-0
- Jul 14 · at France (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Croatia | Spain |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 9-1-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.5 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-2 | 5-0-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.