Leagues Cup (North & Central America) · Fri, Aug 14 · 01:00 · Cruz Azul vs Chicago Fire
Likeliest: Cruz Azul win · 62%
We make it 65% for both teams to score. The market says 58%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cruz Azul62%42%+20
OursMarket
Draw19%26%−7
OursMarket
Chicago Fire19%32%−13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 58% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 68% | +13 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 58% | −20 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 74% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 57% | +20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cruz Azul
WinWinLossWinWin
- Aug 9 · v New York City FC (H)2-1
- Aug 7 · v Philadelphia Union (H)1-0
- Aug 2 · v Atlante FC (H)2-3
- Jul 22 · v Club Puebla (H)2-1
- Jul 18 · at Atlético San Luis (A)3-2
Chicago Fire
LossLossWinWinWin
- Aug 10 · v Santos Laguna (H)3-1
- Aug 7 · v Club Necaxa (H)2-0
- Aug 2 · v Charlotte FC (H)2-1
- Jul 25 · at New York City FC (A)1-3
- Jul 22 · at Inter Miami CF (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Cruz Azul | Chicago Fire |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 6-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.