Liga MX (Mexico) · Sun, Oct 18 · 03:00 · Cruz Azul vs FC Juárez
Likeliest: Cruz Azul win · 74%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 59% for both teams to score. The market says 52%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cruz Azul74%71%+3
OursMarket
Draw17%18%−1
OursMarket
FC Juárez10%11%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 52% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 89% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 26% | 29% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 82% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 89% | 87% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cruz Azul
WinWinLossDrawDraw
- Oct 12 · at Pumas UNAM (A)3-3
- Sep 26 · v CD Toluca (H)3-3
- Sep 20 · at CF Monterrey (A)0-1
- Sep 13 · v Club América (H)4-3
- Sep 6 · v Santos Laguna (H)1-0
FC Juárez
LossLossWinLossDraw
- Oct 10 · v Club Tijuana (H)1-1
- Sep 28 · at Club León (A)1-2
- Sep 19 · v Tigres UANL (H)2-0
- Sep 14 · at Santos Laguna (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · v CF Pachuca (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Cruz Azul | FC Juárez |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 2-0-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.