Copa do Brasil (Brazil) · Wed, Aug 26 · 00:00 · Cruzeiro vs Atlético Mineiro
Likeliest: Cruzeiro win · 59%
A 59% home win. The market says 49%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cruzeiro59%49%+10
OursMarket
Draw25%29%−4
OursMarket
Atlético Mineiro16%22%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 44% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 43% | 48% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 78% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 51% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 71% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 68% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cruzeiro
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Aug 22 · v Flamengo (H)2-1
- Aug 20 · at Flamengo (A)1-2
- Aug 16 · at Corinthians (A)2-1
- Aug 13 · v Flamengo (H)0-0
- Aug 9 · v Mirassol (H)3-1
Atlético Mineiro
DrawDrawWinDrawDraw
- Aug 22 · at Internacional (A)0-0
- Aug 19 · v Red Bull Bragantino (H)2-2
- Aug 16 · v Grêmio (H)3-0
- Aug 12 · at Red Bull Bragantino (A)0-0
- Aug 8 · at Remo (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Cruzeiro | Atlético Mineiro |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 4-6-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.