Copa do Brasil (Brazil) · Wed, Aug 5 · 22:00 · Cruzeiro vs Chapecoense
Likeliest: Cruzeiro win · 77%
A 77% home win. The market says 69%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cruzeiro77%69%+7
OursMarket
Draw16%20%−4
OursMarket
Chapecoense8%11%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% | 54% | −23 |
| Both teams score | 38% | 46% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 92% | 89% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 23% | 31% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 80% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 91% | 87% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cruzeiro
DrawWinLossWinDraw
- Aug 2 · at Chapecoense (A)0-0
- Jul 31 · at Coritiba (A)1-0
- Jul 26 · v Botafogo (H)0-1
- Jul 23 · at Internacional (A)2-1
- May 31 · v Fluminense (H)1-1
Chapecoense
LossLossLossDrawDraw
- Aug 2 · v Cruzeiro (H)0-0
- Jul 25 · at Santos (A)2-2
- Jul 23 · v Flamengo (H)0-4
- Jul 17 · at Bahia (A)0-2
- May 31 · at Palmeiras (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Cruzeiro | Chapecoense |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 0-2-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.