Copa Libertadores (South America) · Thu, Aug 13 · 00:30 · Cruzeiro vs Flamengo
Likeliest: Cruzeiro win · 38%
A 38% home win. The market says 32%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cruzeiro38%32%+6
OursMarket
Draw29%31%−2
OursMarket
Flamengo33%37%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 46% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 52% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 63% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 68% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 69% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 47% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cruzeiro
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Aug 9 · v Mirassol (H)3-1
- Aug 5 · v Chapecoense (H)2-0
- Aug 2 · at Chapecoense (A)0-0
- Jul 31 · at Coritiba (A)1-0
- Jul 26 · v Botafogo (H)0-1
Flamengo
WinWinDrawDrawWin
- Aug 9 · v Vitória (H)2-0
- Jul 29 · at Internacional (A)1-1
- Jul 26 · v São Paulo (H)1-1
- Jul 23 · at Chapecoense (A)4-0
- May 30 · v Coritiba (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Cruzeiro | Flamengo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.