Serie A (Brazil) · Fri, Oct 23 · 23:00 · Cruzeiro vs Remo
Likeliest: Cruzeiro win · 75%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 75% for the home win. The market says 71%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cruzeiro75%71%+3
OursMarket
Draw17%18%−1
OursMarket
Remo9%11%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 62% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 52% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 89% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 26% | 29% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 90% | 87% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cruzeiro
LossWinWinLossWin
- Oct 18 · at Grêmio (A)4-2
- Oct 13 · at Red Bull Bragantino (A)2-4
- Oct 8 · v São Paulo (H)2-0
- Sep 20 · at Vitória (A)3-1
- Sep 13 · at Santos (A)1-2
Remo
LossLossDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 18 · v Red Bull Bragantino (H)1-1
- Oct 10 · at Vasco da Gama (A)0-0
- Oct 7 · v Grêmio (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Santos (H)1-2
- Sep 14 · at Bahia (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Cruzeiro | Remo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 0-5-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.