Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Feb 26 · 17:45 · Crvena Zvezda vs LOSC Lille
Likeliest: Crvena Zvezda win · 48%
A 48% home win. The market says 35%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Crvena Zvezda48%35%+12
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−4
OursMarket
LOSC Lille29%37%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 51% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 56% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 63% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 65% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 48% | +14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Crvena Zvezda
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Feb 19 · at LOSC Lille (A)1-0
- Jan 29 · v Celta de Vigo (H)1-1
- Jan 22 · at Malmö FF (A)1-0
- Dec 11 · at Sturm Graz (A)1-0
- Nov 27 · v FCSB (H)1-0
LOSC Lille
LossDrawDrawLossWin
- Feb 22 · at Angers SCO (A)1-0
- Feb 19 · v Crvena Zvezda (H)0-1
- Feb 14 · v Brest (H)1-1
- Feb 6 · at Metz (A)0-0
- Feb 1 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Crvena Zvezda | LOSC Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-2 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.