Premier League (England) · Sun, May 24 · 15:00 · Crystal Palace vs Arsenal
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 40%
We make it 53% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Crystal Palace32%22%+9
OursMarket
Draw28%24%+4
OursMarket
Arsenal40%54%−13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 57% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 58% | −10 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 46% | +13 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 78% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 76% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 30% | +14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Crystal Palace
LossWinDrawLossDraw
- May 17 · at Brentford (A)2-2
- May 13 · at Manchester City (A)0-3
- May 10 · v Everton (H)2-2
- May 7 · v Shakhtar Donetsk (H)2-1
- May 3 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)0-3
Arsenal
DrawWinWinWinWin
- May 18 · v Burnley (H)1-0
- May 10 · at West Ham United (A)1-0
- May 5 · v Atlético Madrid (H)1-0
- May 2 · v Fulham (H)3-0
- Apr 29 · at Atlético Madrid (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Crystal Palace | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 70% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.