Premier League (England) · Tue, Feb 25 · 19:30 · Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa
Likeliest: Crystal Palace win · 46%
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Crystal Palace46%——
OursMarket
Draw28%——
OursMarket
Aston Villa26%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Crystal Palace
LossWinWinLossWin
- Feb 22 · at Fulham (A)2-0
- Feb 15 · v Everton (H)1-2
- Feb 10 · at Doncaster Rovers (A)2-0
- Feb 2 · at Manchester United (A)2-0
- Jan 26 · v Brentford (H)1-2
Aston Villa
LossWinDrawDrawWin
- Feb 22 · v Chelsea (H)2-1
- Feb 19 · v Liverpool (H)2-2
- Feb 15 · v Ipswich Town (H)1-1
- Feb 9 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)2-1
- Feb 1 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Crystal Palace | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-2 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 22% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.