Premier League (England) · Wed, Jan 7 · 19:30 · Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa
Likeliest: Crystal Palace win · 46%
A 46% home win. The market says 30%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Crystal Palace46%30%+15
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−4
OursMarket
Aston Villa30%41%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 56% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 59% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 70% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 42% | +18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Crystal Palace
DrawLossLossDrawLoss
- Jan 4 · at Newcastle United (A)0-2
- Jan 1 · v Fulham (H)1-1
- Dec 28 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)0-1
- Dec 20 · at Leeds United (A)1-4
- Dec 18 · v KuPS (H)2-2
Aston Villa
WinWinWinLossWin
- Jan 3 · v Nottingham Forest (H)3-1
- Dec 30 · at Arsenal (A)1-4
- Dec 27 · at Chelsea (A)2-1
- Dec 21 · v Manchester United (H)2-1
- Dec 14 · at West Ham United (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Crystal Palace | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 9-0-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 7-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.