Premier League (England) · Sun, Jan 25 · 14:00 · Crystal Palace vs Chelsea
Likeliest: Chelsea win · 38%
A 38% home win. The market says 27%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Crystal Palace38%27%+10
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
Chelsea38%47%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 56% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 59% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 53% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 73% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 37% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Crystal Palace
DrawLossDrawLossLoss
- Jan 17 · at Sunderland (A)1-2
- Jan 10 · at Macclesfield (A)1-2
- Jan 7 · v Aston Villa (H)0-0
- Jan 4 · at Newcastle United (A)0-2
- Jan 1 · v Fulham (H)1-1
Chelsea
LossWinLossWinWin
- Jan 21 · v Pafos FC (H)1-0
- Jan 17 · v Brentford (H)2-0
- Jan 14 · v Arsenal (H)2-3
- Jan 10 · at Charlton Athletic (A)5-1
- Jan 7 · at Fulham (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Crystal Palace | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.