Premier League (England) · Sun, May 10 · 13:00 · Crystal Palace vs Everton
Likeliest: Crystal Palace win · 51%
A 51% home win. The market says 32%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Crystal Palace51%32%+19
OursMarket
Draw26%28%−3
OursMarket
Everton24%40%−16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 49% | +15 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 55% | −9 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 60% | +16 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 68% | −18 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 45% | +23 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Crystal Palace
DrawLossWinLossWin
- May 7 · v Shakhtar Donetsk (H)2-1
- May 3 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)0-3
- Apr 30 · at Shakhtar Donetsk (A)3-1
- Apr 25 · at Liverpool (A)1-3
- Apr 20 · v West Ham United (H)0-0
Everton
WinDrawLossLossDraw
- May 4 · v Manchester City (H)3-3
- Apr 25 · at West Ham United (A)1-2
- Apr 19 · v Liverpool (H)1-2
- Apr 11 · at Brentford (A)2-2
- Mar 21 · v Chelsea (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Crystal Palace | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.