Premier League (England) · Thu, Jan 1 · 17:30 · Crystal Palace vs Fulham
Likeliest: Crystal Palace win · 54%
A 54% home win. The market says 44%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Crystal Palace54%44%+10
OursMarket
Draw25%29%−4
OursMarket
Fulham22%27%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 52% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 73% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 56% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 71% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 62% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Crystal Palace
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Dec 28 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)0-1
- Dec 20 · at Leeds United (A)1-4
- Dec 18 · v KuPS (H)2-2
- Dec 14 · v Manchester City (H)0-3
- Dec 11 · at Shelbourne (A)3-0
Fulham
LossWinLossWinWin
- Dec 27 · at West Ham United (A)1-0
- Dec 22 · v Nottingham Forest (H)1-0
- Dec 17 · at Newcastle United (A)1-2
- Dec 13 · at Burnley (A)3-2
- Dec 7 · v Crystal Palace (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Crystal Palace | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 6-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.