Premier League (England) · Sat, Sep 12 · 14:00 · Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town
Likeliest: Crystal Palace win · 51%
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Crystal Palace51%51%0
OursMarket
Draw26%25%0
OursMarket
Ipswich Town24%24%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Crystal Palace
WinLossLossWinWin
- Sep 8 · v Middlesbrough (H)3-0
- Sep 5 · at Fulham (A)3-2
- Aug 28 · v Manchester City (H)1-4
- Aug 22 · at Everton (A)0-2
- May 27 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)1-0
Ipswich Town
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Sep 4 · v Liverpool (H)0-2
- Aug 30 · at Manchester United (A)2-5
- Aug 25 · v Leicester City (H)3-1
- Aug 22 · v Sunderland (H)2-1
- May 2 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Crystal Palace | Ipswich Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.