Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Sep 17 · 19:00 · Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznań
Likeliest: Crystal Palace win · 70%
A tight one: we make it 70% for the home win. The market says 68%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Crystal Palace70%68%+2
OursMarket
Draw19%20%−1
OursMarket
Lech Poznań11%12%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 88% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 30% | 32% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 86% | 85% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Crystal Palace
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Sep 12 · v Ipswich Town (H)2-3
- Sep 8 · v Middlesbrough (H)3-0
- Sep 5 · at Fulham (A)3-2
- Aug 28 · v Manchester City (H)1-4
- Aug 22 · at Everton (A)0-2
Lech Poznań
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Sep 12 · at Górnik Zabrze (A)1-2
- Sep 6 · v Raków Częstochowa (H)1-0
- Sep 3 · v Jagiellonia Białystok (H)2-1
- Aug 30 · at Widzew Łódź (A)3-2
- Aug 27 · at FC Thun (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Crystal Palace | Lech Poznań |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 7-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.